One Article Review
| Source |  NoticeBored |
|---|---|
| Identifiant | 1779380 |
| Date de publication | 2020-06-20 18:13:14 (vue: 2020-06-29 11:00:30) |
| Titre | NBlog April 30 - blursday metrics |
| Texte |  The past 6 weeks or so have been quite surreal for us, and I guess for you too. Yesterday we went shopping, leaving our property for the first time since our shopping expedition a week before NZ went into "level 4" lockdown. As of a couple of days ago, we're now at "level 3". Don't ask me what the differences are between the levels, nor what levels 2, 1 and 0 might look like. All I know is that it was a relief to see other people out and about, most of us making obvious efforts to keep our distance. The new normal isn't so bad as I imagined, certainly nothing like a zombie apocalypse or police state.Those 6 weeks blurred into one. At some point I stopped counting up and blogging about the passing days ... and eventually started counting down to the end of "level 4", or more importantly the impending exhaustion of some of our most essential supplies: coffee, wine and chocolate. Some valuable lessons there for when we replenish our "earthquake kit"!Meanwhile, NZ's COVID-19 numbers have apparently peaked and fallen. I say "apparently" because the metrics are dubious - again, that's not just our situation in NZ, but a global issue. Differences in the way the metrics are defined, collected and interpreted are layered on top of cultural/national differences in the populations, health systems, economies and more. In particular, there are substantial differences in the amount and quality (reliability, utility) of COVID-19 testing, which is important because COVID-19 infections are cryptic: some of us are infected but have little to no symptoms and hence we don't know it, at least not right now (during the incubation period, the virus multiplies and the symptoms may - or may not - show). Some aren't so lucky and a few are seriously, even gravely ill, at which point the infection is obvious and hard (but not impossible) to ignore or discount. There's still the issue that it appears the most vulnerable patients have other "underlying medical conditions", which is the phrase of the moment and points to yet another issue with the metrics.Two valuable metrics in infectious disease are:The rate of spread of the infection throughout the population. This is akin to the 'probability' factor in classical risk management. Essentially, it's a gross measure of the chances of anyone becoming infected. For the reasons just stated, it is tricky to measure in practice.The proportion of infected people who become sick - more specifically, sick enough to show symptoms, affect their lives, require treatment and hospitalisation, a |
| Envoyé | Oui |
| Condensat | about above accountable across advice advisors affect affected again ago akin all alone always amount analysis and/or angle another anyone anyway apocalypse apparently appears approach april are are:the aren aside ask assumption assumptions attempt avoiding away awkward bad because become becoming been before besides best between binge blogging blurred blursday bold both broader but butchery can careers cause certainly chainsaw chances chase cherry chocolate classical clearer clearly clears coffee collected comparison concerned conditions consequence consequences control controls counting countries country couple course covid criteria crucial cryptic: cultural/national cups currently data days death decades decent decisions defined definitely denigrate depend depends die differences different digits: discount disease distance doing don down dubious due during earthquake economic economies economy effects efforts election end enough entails especially essential essentially estimation even eventually example exhaustion expect expedition factor factors fade fallen far favour field fill finds fingrs first foolhardy forced forward freezer from full furthermore future general getting ghosts glare global government governments gravel gravely gross guaranteed guess hard harder have head health hence here home hoping hospitalisation how idly ignore ill illness imagined impact impending implications important importantly impossible incubation individuals infected infection infections infections and infectious influences inform integrity interest interests interpretation interpreted involved isn isolate issue issues itself jabber just keep key kit knives know largely last later layer layered laying learned least leaving led lesson lessons let level levels like limit line little lives lockdown logs long look looking losing lucky makers making management managing manipulation markedly may maybe meanwhile measure measurement meddling media medical medium mentioning metrics might models moment months more most multiplies mush national naturally nblog need neighbours new night nor normal normality not noted nothing now numbers obvious once one opposition other out over own pandemic part particular passing past patients peaked people perceived period personal phrase pick place playing point points police policy political politicians population populations practical practice probability problems processes property proportion provided pump quality quite rate razor reasons recovery regardless related reliability relief rely reminds repair replenish require responses rest right risk say scandinavian secure see seems seriously several sharp shopping short should show sick significant simple simplification since situation slope small some sound specifically spread stabilisation stage stakes standardisation started starting state stated statistics stopped strategic strategies strategy strong stuff subject substantial subtler such supplies: support surreal swedish symptoms system systems tabulating temptation term terms testing than thankfully that then there thinking those through throughout time today too took top tough track treatment tricky trust two typing underlie underlying utility valuable virus vulnerable water way ways week weeks well went what when which whichever who whole wine wise within without wonder wondering words world would yesterday yet zombie |
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