One Article Review
| Source |  Errata Security |
|---|---|
| Identifiant | 270359 |
| Date de publication | 2016-12-11 02:46:15 (vue: 2016-12-11 02:46:15) |
| Titre | Some notes on a Hamilton election |
| Texte | At least one elector for Trump has promised to switch his vote, becoming a "Hamilton Elector". Assuming 36 more electors (about 10% of Trump's total) do likewise, and Trump fails to get the 270 absolute majority, then what happens? Since all of the constitutional law scholars I follow haven't taken a stab at this, I thought I would write up some notes.Foreign powers and populistsIn Federalist #68, Alexander Hamilton laid out the reasons why electors should switch their vote. The founders feared bad candidates unduly influenced by foreign powers, and demagogues. Trump is unabashedly both. He criticizes our own CIA claiming what every American knows, that Russia interfered in our election. Trump is the worst sort of populist demagogue, offering no solution to problems other than he'll be a strong leader.Therefore, electors have good reasons to change their votes. I'm not suggesting they should, only that doing so is consistent with our Constitutional principles and history.So if 10% of Trump's electors defect, how would this actually work?Failure to get 270 vote absolute majority (math)Well, to start with, let's count up the number of electors. Each state gets one elector for every House Representative and each Senator. Since there are 435 members of the House and 100 members of the Senate, that comes out to 535. However, the 23rd Amendment adds three more electors for Washington D.C. (so they can vote in the Presidential election but not Congress). So that means the there are 538 total electors.According to the Constitution, the winner must get an absolute majority, meaning over 50% of the electoral votes cast. Half of 538 is 269, plus one to get more than half to get majority, equals 270. Thus, Trump must get at least 270 electoral votes. If he gets only 269, the election fails.Trump won 306 electors in the election. To get below 270, then 37 electors must switch their votes, which is a little over 10%.Electors are free to change their votesConstitutionally, the electors are free to change their votes. However, for most, it would destroy their political careers. Most are state party people who have spent years building up power and reputation in their respective states. Violating their word would destroy all that -- nobody would trust them again. They would certainly never be chosen as an elector again, of course.Many states have laws against electors changing their votes. It is widely accepted that these laws are unconstitutional and would be struck down the courts, but in the meanwhile, some vote flippers would have to spend considerable time and money defending themselves from the legal punishment.Electors vote December 19We've only got until December 19th [*] for electors to change their minds. That's the date they vote. The votes are collected in their various states, then sent to Washington.Electoral votes counted January 6Ballots are theoretically sealed until January 6, when the votes are unsealed and counted in front of Congress.A 26 state majority of House delegationsIf the elector college fails to get an absolute majority of 270 votes, then the election is thrown into the House of Representatives. But it's not a straight up vote among all 435 members of the House. Instead, there are 50 votes -- one for each state delegation. Again, the winner must get an absolute majority to win, meaning 26 votes.This will be the newly elected House of Representatives, which will have been sworn in on January 3, three days earlier. They are instructed to immediately vote, right after the count |
| Envoyé | Oui |
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