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Source AlienVault.webp AlienVault Blog
Identifiant 2731748
Date de publication 2021-05-03 10:00:00 (vue: 2021-05-03 10:05:46)
Titre The new normal is actually very normal:  Punctuated equilibrium, security cycle theory, and the “New Normal”
Texte In 2020, the world was hit with an unexpected pandemic that changed much of life as many had come to know it.  Virtually overnight, masks were required, employees were working remotely, children were home from school, and businesses were locked down to stop the spread of Covid19.  In reading the news and social media the term “The New Normal” has taken front and center as the image that is being promoted.  FBI statistics show that due to the pandemic and the increase in remote workers, cyber fraudsters have taken a much more active role.  Other criminals are also taking advantage of the situation.  The dire sounding term “The New Normal” seems to suggest that life will be forever changed and we, as humans, will struggle to adapt. What occurred in 2020 was neither “new” nor is it as dire as it sounds. Punctuated equilibrium is a theory originally developed by paleontologists to explain evolutionary biological change.  It has since been applied to numerous other areas such as Political Science, social theory, technological change, corporate behavior, and organizational theory. In short, the theory posits that policies generally remain static and only change incrementally due to various constraints such as bounded rationality, cultures, and vested interests.  Policy is characterized by long periods of stasis that only change when punctuated by changes in the conditions.  History is replete with examples of punctuated equilibrium changing policy and people’s actions and behavior.  The impact can be found on both a macro level in which the world, and nations, may change and a micro level in which communities, companies, and people are impacted. In the 14th Century the world was struck by the Bubonic Plague, otherwise known as the “Black Death”, which, per estimates, killed between 25% and 40% of people living in Europe.  Until that time France and England were in a near state of perpetual war, and the English were content with the Feudal system.  After the plague struck, France and England were forced to agree to a truce to their perpetual warring.  It also brought about the end of the English Feudal system and completely changed society and social structures.  Unfortunately, those with more sinister ideas used the plague to commit pogroms against certain ethic groups.  On June 24, 1914, the heir to the Austrian Throne, Arch Duke Ferdinand was assassinated in the Streets of Sarajevo.  While tensions had been brewing within Europe for years, no country wanted to inflame the situation and a state of tense peace remained.  The assassination, however, proved to be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back and thrust Europe into one of the costliest and deadliest wars in history.  This war, in turn, changed the entire world and resulted in new countries being created and others subsumed.  While Europe raged with war between 1914 and 1915, the United States maintained an isolationist posture and did not enter the war.  Certainly, there were some efforts to provide materials and support, but the US took a laisse fair approach to the War in Europe and did not want to intercede.  That all changed on May 7, 1915 when a German U Boat sank
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