One Article Review
| Source |  Errata Security |
|---|---|
| Identifiant | 3108408 |
| Date de publication | 2021-07-21 18:11:58 (vue: 2021-07-21 23:05:28) |
| Titre | Risk analysis for DEF CON 2021 |
| Texte | It's the second year of the pandemic and the DEF CON hacker conference wasn't canceled. However, the Delta variant is spreading. I thought I'd do a little bit of risk analysis. TL;DR: I'm not canceling my ticket, but changing my plans what I do in Vegas during the convention.First, a note about risk analysis. For many people, "risk" means something to avoid. They work in a binary world, labeling things as either "risky" (to be avoided) or "not risky". But real risk analysis is about shades of gray, trying to quantify things.The Delta variant is a mutation out of India that, at the moment, is particularly affecting the UK. Cases are nearly up to their pre-vaccination peaks in that country. Note that the UK has already vaccinated nearly 70% of their population -- more than the United States. In both the UK and US there are few preventive measures in place (no lockdowns, no masks) other than vaccines.  Thus, the UK graph is somewhat predictive of what will happen in the United States. If we time things from when the latest wave hit the same levels as peak of the first wave, then it looks like the USA is only about 1.5 months behind the UK. It's another interesting lesson about risk analysis. Most people experience these things as sudden changes. One moment, everything seems fine, and cases are decreasing. The next moment, we are experiencing a major new wave of infections. It's especially jarring when the thing we are tracking is exponential. But we can compare the curves and see that things are totally predictable. In about another 1.5 months, the US will experience a wave that looks similar to the UK wave.Sometimes the problem is that the change is inconceivable. We saw that recently with 1-in-100 year floods in Germany. Weather forecasters predicted 1-in-100 level of floods days in advance, but they still surprised many people. |
| Envoyé | Oui |
| Condensat | thus 100 2021 about accounting activities advance affecting ahead airplanes along already also analysis analysis: another anybody appears are area aren around avoid avoided away because before: behind believes better between biggest binary bit blogpost both but can cancel canceled canceling canyon canyons car cases cause caused chance change changes changing closer compare con concern conference considering convention country crowd curve curves dam damage days death deaths decreasing def defcon delta distanced doesn doing done down due during dying either else entire especially estimating even event events everything exercise experience experiencing exponential fact far fear filtration fine first floods forecasters from future germany get getting going good grand graph gray great growth hacker had happen harder harm has have haven here high higher hikes hind hit hoover hospital how however hub idea inconceivable india infection infections infects instead interesting isn jarring known labeling lag lake latest less lesson level levels like little lockdowns long look looks low lung major many masks may meade means measures might mild moment months more most much mutation nearly nevada never new next not note now once one only opportunity organ other out outcome outdoor outside pandemic part particularly partly peak peaks peek people personal place plan plans point population post pre predictable predicted predictions predictive predicts preventive probably problem quantify rates real really recently renting require resulted risk risky safest same saw second see seems shades should sight similar socially someplace something sometimes somewhat spending spikes spiking spreading states such sudden superspreader surprised suspect take takes tell term than then there these thing things thought thus ticket tickets time times tl;dr: totally tracking treating triple trying united unvaccinated usa usually vacation vaccinated vaccination vaccines variant vegas visit vitamin wasn wave way weather week weeks what when where wherever which will without words work world worry year you your |
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