Written by: Alden Wahlstrom, David Mainor, Daniel Kapellmann Zafra
In June 2023, Russian businessman Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his private military company (PMC) “Wagner” carried out an armed mutiny within Russia. The events triggered the meteoric political downfall of Prigozhin, raising questions about the future of his various enterprises that were only underscored when he died two months later under suspicious circumstances. Up to that point, Prigozhin and his enterprises worked to advance the Kremlin\'s interests as the manifestation of the thinnest veil of plausible deniability for state-guided actions on multiple continents. Such enterprises included the Wagner PMC; overt influence infrastructure, like his media company Patriot Group that housed his media companies, including the “RIA FAN” Federal News Agency; covert influence infrastructures; and an array of businesses aimed at generating personal wealth and the resourcing necessary to fund his various ventures.
Mandiant has for years tracked and reported on covert information operations (IO) threat activity linked to Prigozhin. His involvement in IO was first widely established in the West as part of the public exposure of Russian-backed interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election-this included activity conducted by Russia\'s Internet Research Agency (IRA), which the U.S. Government publicly named Prigozhin as its financier. Subsequently, Prigozhin was publicly connected to a web of IO activity targeting the U.S., EU, Ukraine, Russian domestic audiences, countries across Africa, and further afield. Such activity has worked not only to advance Russian interests on matters of strategic importance, but also has attempted to exploit existing divisions in societies targeting various subgroups across their population.
Throughout 2023, Mandiant has observed shifts in the activity from multiple IO campaigns linked to Prigozhin, including continued indicators that components of these campaigns have remained viable since his death. This blog post examines a sample of Prigozhin-linked IO campaigns to better understand their outcomes thus far and provide an overview of what can be expected from these activity sets in the future. This is relevant not only because some of the infrastructure of these campaigns remains viable despite Prigozhin\'s undoing, but also because we advance into a year in which Ukraine continues to dominate Russia\'s strategic priorities and there are multiple global elections that Russia may seek to influence.
Mandiant and Google\'s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) work together in support of our respective missions at Google. TAG has likewise been tracking coordinated influence operations linked to Prigozhin and the Internet Research Agency (IRA) for years; and in 2023, Google took over 400 enforcement actions to disrupt IO campaigns linked to the IRA, details of which are reported in the quarterly TAG Bulletin. TAG has not observed significant activity from the IRA or other Prigozhin-linked entities specifically on Google platforms since Prigozhin\'s death,