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ErrataRob.webp 2020-01-28 16:53:00 There\'s no evidence the Saudis hacked Jeff Bezos\'s iPhone (lien direct) There's no evidence the Saudis hacked Jeff Bezos's iPhone.This is the conclusion of the all the independent experts who have reviewed the public report behind the U.N.'s accusations. That report failed to find evidence proving the theory, but instead simply found unknown things it couldn't explain, which it pretended was evidence.This is a common flaw in such forensics reports. When there's evidence, it's usually found and reported. When there's no evidence, investigators keep looking. Todays devices are complex, so if you keep looking, you always find anomalies you can't explain. There's only two results from such investigations: proof of bad things or anomalies that suggest bad things. There's never any proof that no bad things exist (at least, not in my experience).Bizarre and inexplicable behavior doesn't mean a hacker attack. Engineers trying to debug problems, and support technicians helping customers, find such behavior all the time. Pretty much every user of technology experiences this. Paranoid users often think there's a conspiracy against them when electronics behave strangely, but "behaving strangely" is perfectly normal.When you start with the theory that hackers are involved, then you have an explanation for the all that's unexplainable. It's all consistent with the theory, thus proving it. This is called "confirmation bias". It's the same thing that props up conspiracy theories like UFOs: space aliens can do anything, thus, anything unexplainable is proof of space aliens. Alternate explanations, like skunkworks testing a new jet, never seem as plausible.The investigators were hired to confirm bias. Their job wasn't to do an unbiased investigation of the phone, but instead, to find evidence confirming the suspicion that the Saudis hacked Bezos.Remember the story started in February of 2019 when the National Inquirer tried to extort Jeff Bezos with sexts between him and his paramour Lauren Sanchez. Bezos immediately accused the Saudis of being involved. Even after it was revealed that the sexts came from Michael Sanchez, the paramour's brother, Bezos's team double-downed on their accusations the Saudi's hacked Bezos's phone.The FTI report tells a story beginning with Saudi Crown Prince sending Bezos a message using WhatsApp containing a video. The story goes:The downloader that delivered the 4.22MB video was encrypted, delaying or preventing further study of the code delivered along with the video. It should be noted that the encrypted WhatsApp file sent from MBS' account was slightly larger than the video itself.This story is invalid. Such messages use end-to-end encryption, which means that while nobody in between can decrypt them (not even WhatsApp), anybody with possession of the ends can. That's how the technology is supposed to work. If Bezos loses/breaks his phone and needs to restore a backup onto a new phone, the backup needs to have the keys used to decrypt the WhatsApp messages.Thus, the forensics image taken by the investigators had the necessary keys to decrypt the video -- the investigators simply didn't know about them. In a previous blogpost I explain these magical WhatsApp keys and where to find them so that anybody, even you at home, can forensics their own iPhone, retrieve these keys, and decrypt their own videos. Hack Uber
ErrataRob.webp 2018-10-19 19:24:46 Election interference from Uber and Lyft (lien direct) Almost nothing can escape the taint of election interference. A good example is the announcements by Uber and Lyft that they'll provide free rides to the polls on election day. This well-meaning gesture nonetheless calls into question how this might influence the election."Free rides" to the polls is a common thing. Taxi companies have long offered such services for people in general. Political groups have long offered such services for their constituencies in particular. Political groups target retirement communities to get them to the polls, black churches have long had their "Souls to the Polls" program across the 37 states that allow early voting on Sundays.But with Uber and Lyft getting into this we now have concerns about "big data", "algorithms", and "hacking".As the various Facebook controversies have taught us, these companies have a lot of data on us that can reliably predict how we are going to vote. If their leaders wanted to, these companies could use this information in order to get those on one side of an issue to the polls. On hotly contested elections, it wouldn't take much to swing the result to one side.Even if they don't do this consciously, their various algorithms (often based on machine learning and AI) may do so accidentally. As is frequently demonstrated, unconscious biases can lead to real world consequences, like facial recognition systems being unable to read Asian faces.Lastly, it makes these companies prime targets for Russian hackers, who may take all these into account when trying to muck with elections. Or indeed, to simply claim that they did in order to call the results into question. Though to be fair, Russian hackers have so many other targets of opportunity. Messing with the traffic lights of a few cities would be enough to swing a presidential election, specifically targeting areas with certain voters with traffic jams making it difficult for them to get to the polls.Even if it's not "hackers" as such, many will want to game the system. For example, politically motivated drivers may choose to loiter in neighborhoods strongly on one side or the other, helping the right sorts of people vote at the expense of not helping the wrong people. Likewise, drivers might skew the numbers by deliberately hailing rides out of opposing neighborhoods and taking them them out of town, or to the right sorts of neighborhoods.I'm trying to figure out which Party this benefits the most. Let's take a look at rider demographics to start with, such as this post. It appears that income levels and gender are roughly evenly distributed.Ridership is skewed urban, with riders being 46% urban, 48% suburban, and 6% rural. In contrast, US population is 31% urban, 55% suburban, and 15% rural. Giving the increasing polarization among rural and urban voters, this strongly skews results in favor of Democrats.Likewise, the above numbers show that Uber ridership is strongly skewed to the younger generation, with 55% of the riders 34 and younger. This again strongly skews "free rides" by Uber and Lyft toward the Democrats. Though to be fair, the "over 65" crowd has long had an advantage as the parties have fallen over themselves to bus people from retirement communities to the polls (and that older people can get free time on weekdays to vote).Even if you are on the side that appears to benefit, this should still concern you. Our allegiance should first be to a robust and fa Guideline Uber
ErrataRob.webp 2017-12-19 21:59:49 Bitcoin: In Crypto We Trust (lien direct) Tim Wu, who coined "net neutrality", has written an op-ed on the New York Times called "The Bitcoin Boom: In Code We Trust". He is wrong is wrong about "code".The wrong "trust"Wu builds a big manifesto about how real-world institutions aren't can't be trusted. Certainly, this reflects the rhetoric from a vocal wing of Bitcoin fanatics, but it's not the Bitcoin manifesto.Instead, the word "trust" in the Bitcoin paper is much narrower, referring to how online merchants can't trust credit-cards (for example). When I bought school supplies for my niece when she studied in Canada, the online site wouldn't accept my U.S. credit card. They didn't trust my credit card. However, they trusted my Bitcoin, so I used that payment method instead, and succeeded in the purchase.Real-world currencies like dollars are tethered to the real-world, which means no single transaction can be trusted, because "they" (the credit-card company, the courts, etc.) may decide to reverse the transaction. The manifesto behind Bitcoin is that a transaction cannot be reversed -- and thus, can always be trusted.Deliberately confusing the micro-trust in a transaction and macro-trust in banks and governments is a sort of bait-and-switch.The wrong inspirationWu claims:"It was, after all, a carnival of human errors and misfeasance that inspired the invention of Bitcoin in 2009, namely, the financial crisis."Not true. Bitcoin did not appear fully formed out of the void, but was instead based upon a series of innovations that predate the financial crisis by a decade. Moreover, the financial crisis had little to do with "currency". The value of the dollar and other major currencies were essentially unscathed by the crisis. Certainly, enthusiasts looking backward like to cherry pick the financial crisis as yet one more reason why the offline world sucks, but it had little to do with Bitcoin.In crypto we trustIt's not in code that Bitcoin trusts, but in crypto. Satoshi makes that clear in one of his posts on the subject:A generation ago, multi-user time-sharing computer systems had a similar problem. Before strong encryption, users had to rely on password protection to secure their files, placing trust in the system administrator to keep their information private. Privacy could always be overridden by the admin based on his judgment call weighing the principle of privacy against other concerns, or at the behest of his superiors. Then strong encryption became available to the masses, and trust was no longer required. Data could be secured in a way that was physically impossible for others to access, no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter what.You don't possess Bitcoins. Instead, all the coins are on the public blockchain under your "address". What you possess is the secret, private key that matches the address. Transferring Bitcoin means using your private key to unlock your coins and transfer them to another. If you print out your private key on paper, and delete it from the computer, it can never be hacked.Trust is in this crypto operation. Trust is in your private crypto key.We don't trust the codeThe manifesto "in code we trust" has been proven wrong again and again. We don't trust computer code (software) in the cryptocurrency world.The most profound example is something known as the "DAO" on top of Ethereum, Bitcoin's major competitor. Ethereum allows "smart contracts" containing code. The quasi-religious manifesto of the DAO smart-contract is that the "code is the contract", that all the terms and conditions are specified within the smart-contract co Uber
ErrataRob.webp 2017-11-23 01:31:13 Don Jr.: I\'ll bite (lien direct) So Don Jr. tweets the following, which is an excellent troll. So I thought I'd bite. The reason is I just got through debunk Democrat claims about NetNeutrality, so it seems like a good time to balance things out and debunk Trump nonsense.The issue here is not which side is right. The issue here is whether you stand for truth, or whether you'll seize any factoid that appears to support your side, regardless of the truthfulness of it. The ACLU obviously chose falsehoods, as I documented. In the following tweet, Don Jr. does the same.It's a preview of the hyperpartisan debates are you are likely to have across the dinner table tomorrow, which each side trying to outdo the other in the false-hoods they'll claim.Need something to discuss over #Thanksgiving dinner? Try thisStock markets at all time highsLowest jobless claims since 736 TRILLION added to economy since Election1.5M fewer people on food stampsConsumer confidence through roof Lowest Unemployment rate in 17 years #maga- Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) November 23, 2017What we see in this number is a steady trend of these statistics since the Great Recession, with no evidence in the graphs showing how Trump has influenced these numbers, one way or the other.Stock markets at all time highsThis is true, but it's obviously not due to Trump. The stock markers have been steadily rising since the Great Recession. Trump has done nothing substantive to change the market trajectory. Also, he hasn't inspired the market to change it's direction.To be fair to Don Jr., we've all been crediting (or blaming) presidents for changes in the stock market despite the fact they have almost no influence over it. Presidents don't run the economy, it's an inappropriate conceit. The most influence they've had is in harming it.Lowest jobless claims since 73Again, let's graph this:As we can see, jobless claims have been on a smooth downward trajectory since the Great Recession. It's difficult to see here how President Trump has influenced these numbers.6 Trillion added to the economyWhat he's referring to is that assets have risen in value, like the stock market, homes, gold, and even Bitcoin.But this is a well known fallacy known as Mercantilism, believing the "economy" is measure Uber
ErrataRob.webp 2017-05-06 04:15:35 Some notes on #MacronLeak (lien direct) Tonight (Friday May 5 2017) hackers dumped emails (and docs) related to French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron. He's the anti-Putin candidate running against the pro-Putin Marin Le Pen. I thought I'd write up some notes.Are they Macron's emails?No. They are e-mails from members of his staff/supporters, namely Alain Tourret, Pierre Person, Cedric O??, Anne-Christine Lang, and Quentin Lafay.There are some documents labeled "Macron" which may have been taken from his computer, cloud drive -- his own, or an assistant.Who done it?Obviously, everyone assumes that Russian hackers did it, but there's nothing (so far) that points to anybody in particular.It appears to be the most basic of phishing attacks, which means anyone could've done it, including your neighbor's pimply faced teenager.Update: Several people [*] have pointed out Trend Micro reporting that Russian/APT28 hackers were targeting Macron back on April 24. Coincidentally, this is also the latest that emails appear in the dump.What's the hacker's evil plan?Everyone is proposing theories about the hacker's plan, but the most likely answer is they don't have one. Hacking is opportunistic. They likely targeted everyone in the campaign, and these were the only victims they could hack. It's probably not the outcome they were hoping for.But since they've gone through all the work, it'd be a shame to waste it. Thus, they are likely releasing the dump not because they believe it will do any good, but because it'll do them no harm. It's a shame to waste all the work they put into it.If there's any plan, it's probably a long range one, serving notice that any political candidate that goes against Putin will have to deal with Russian hackers dumping email.Why now? Why not leak bits over time like with Clinton?France has a campaign blackout starting tonight at midnight until the election on Sunday. Thus, it's the perfect time to leak the files. Anything salacious, or even rumors of something bad, will spread viraly through Facebook and Twitter, without the candidate or the media having a good chance to rebut the allegations.The last emails in the logs appear to be from April 24, the day after the first round vote (Sunday's vote is the second, runoff, round). Thus, the hackers could've leaked this dump any time in the last couple weeks. They chose now to do it.Are the emails verified?Yes and no.Yes, we have DKIM signatures between people's accounts, so we know for certain that hackers successfully breached these accounts. DKIM is an anti-spam method that cryptographically signs emails by the sending domain (e.g. @gmail.com), and thus, can also verify the email hasn't been altered or forged.But no, when a salacious email or document is found in the dump Uber APT 28
ErrataRob.webp 2017-01-30 01:08:47 Uber was right to disable surge pricing at JFK (lien direct) Yesterday, the NYC taxi union had a one-hour strike protesting Trump's "Muslim Ban", refusing to pick up passengers at the JFK airport. Uber responded by disabling surge pricing at the airport. This has widely been interpreted as a bad thing, so the hashtag "#DeleteUber" has been trending, encouraging people to delete their Uber accounts/app.These people are wrong, obviously so.Surge PricingUber's "Surge Pricing" isn't price gouging, as many assume. Instead, the additional money goes directly to the drivers, to encourage them come to the area surging and pick up riders. Uber isn't a taxi company. It can't direct drivers to go anywhere. All it can do is provide incentives. "Surge Pricing" for customers means "Surge Income" for the drivers, giving them an incentive. Drivers have a map showing which areas of the city are surging, so they can drive there.Another way of thinking about it is "Demand Pricing". It's simply the economic Law of Supply and Demand. If demand increases, then prices increase, and then supply increases chasing the higher profits. It's why famously you can't get a taxi cab on New Years Eve, but you can get an Uber driver. Taxi drivers can't charge more when demand is surging, so there's no more taxis available on that date than on any other. But Uber drivers can/do charge more, so there's more Uber drivers.Supply and Demand is every much a law as Gravity. If the supply of taxi drivers is less than the demand, then not everyone is going to get a ride. That's basic math. If there's only 20 drivers right now, and 100 people wanting a ride, then 80 riders are going to be disappointed. The only solution is more drivers. Paying drivers more money gets more drivers. The part time drivers, the drivers planning on partying instead of working, will decide to work New Years chasing the surge wages.Uber's announcementUber made the following announcement:Surge pricing has been turned off at #JFK Airport. This may result in longer wait times. Please be patient.- Uber NYC (@Uber_NYC) January 29, 2017Without turning off Surge Pricing, Uber's computers would notice the spike in demand, as would-be taxi customers switch to Uber. The computers would then institute surge pricing around JFK automatically. This would notify the drivers in the area, who would then flock to JFK, chasing the higher income. This would be bad for the strike.By turning off surge pricing, there would be no increase in supply. It would mean the only drivers going to JFK are those dropping off passengers. It would mean that Uber wouldn't be servicing any more riders than on a normal day, making no difference to the taxi strike, one way or the other.Why wouldn't Uber stop pickups at JFK altogether, joining the strike? Because it'd be a tough decision for them. They have a different relationship with their drivers. Both taxis and Uber are required to take passengers to the airport if asked, but taxis are much better at weaseling out of it [*]. That means screwing drivers, forcing them to go way out to JFK with no return fare. In contrast, taxis were warned enough ahead of time to avoid the trip.The timingThe above section assumes a carefully considered Uber policy. In reality, they didn't have the time.The taxi union didn't announce their decision until 5pm, with the strike set for only one hour, between 6pm and 7pm.BREAKING: NYTWA dr Uber
ErrataRob.webp 2016-06-08 00:13:36 No, Musky, Feudalism is best for Mars (lien direct) Recently, the press fawned all over Elon Musk's comments at a conference. Among them was Musk's claim that "direct democracy" would be the best system, where citizen's vote directly for laws, rather than voting for (corrupt) representatives/congressmen. This is nonsense. The best political system would be feudalism.There is no such thing as "direct democracy". Our representatives in congress are only the first layer on top of a bureaucracy. Most rules that restrict us are not "laws" voted by congress but "regulations" decided by some bureaucrat.Consider the BP Gulf Oil spill, as an example. It happened because oil companies got cozy with their regulators, the minerals Management Service (MMS), part of the Department of the Interior. The bureaucrats had a dual mandate: to protect the environment, and to promote economic activity. Oil companies lobbied them to risk the environment in favor of profits.Consider  Obamcare's controversial mandate that health insurers must pay for abortions. This was not part of the law pass by congress, but a decision by the bureaucrats in charge of all the little details in carrying out the law.Consider the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) regulation of the Internet. It bases its power to regulate the Internet on laws that essentially predate the Internet as we know it.No matter how ideal this "direct Democracy" of Musk's, you are still going to leave most decision making in the hands of a bureaucracy. This is especially true on space flight to Mars. If something's wrong with the air system, you want a technician making quick decisions to fix it. Otherwise, people would suffocate long before they had a chance to vote on the issue. Technicians must be trusted with important decisions, like jettisoning that one pod killing 10 people in order to save the remaining 100.No matter the political system, you are going to have the bureaucracy making tactical, day-to-day decisions. You are also going to have an upper tier, making long term strategic decisions. It's how all political systems work, from monarchies to "direct democracy". They largely just change the names of the bureaucrats, rather than being substantively different.The corruption in Democracies doesn't necessarily come from those in power, but from the voters themselves. Voters are idiots and vote like idiots. That's why you have candidates like those of the U.S's current election season -- populist demagogues preying on people's ignorance proposing solutions that educated people believe to be unworkable. The majority of voters have never taken an economics class, do not understand foreign policy, or have any other qualification to make the decisions they make.Instead of education, voters overwhelming decide what's best for themselves, not dispassionately what's best for society as a whole. College students vote for free college. Old people vote for social security and health care. Mothers vote for child leave and child care. Racists vote to keep unwanted types out of their community. And so on. That's corruption at it's core.As de Tocqueville is famous for noting, democracy only lasts up to the point that 51% of the population realizes they can vote to just take everything away from the other 49%. You call it corruption, but our current system allows a member of the 49% to lobby congress so that they don't get screwed by the 51%.  Indeed, that's what most lobbyists do -- they aren't asking for special favors from the government so much as trying to alleviate special punishments. It's a sort of corruption defending themselves from the voter's corruption.As the famous quote goes, "Democracy is the worst form of government -- except for all the others". It's a horrible system, it's just we h Uber
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